You know the devs are trying to be impartial to everything... No
By the looks of it the idea I see was a fiction made of The Kurds and Insurgents In Iraq...
Tho it is purely fictional... the reasons I say that is due to Female fighters on security team, foreign advisors. also the Single player will be about a women who escape imprisonment in a sandstorm with her sisters after a mortar made a way for them to escape thru a wall... the reason to her imprisionment is unknown, same for what happened prior and during imprisionment, but take a moment and take your mind off the game... don't wanna get political but Daesh did this with places they seized taking women as spoils of war, having thier way with them and treated like cattle....
Please don't put labels on anything.... also saying this both insurgents and Advisors are speaking Arabic + English... Kurds speak Kurdish
The Insurgents don't shout any over the top identifiable religious Jargon so I'm taking it they are a nationalist group that was made of old arm veterans and pissed off citizens in the country, notice how in insurgency the insurgents say 'they are not supposed to be here,Drive them out, this is our land'
This is pure speculation, no doubt someone will take the time to write fan fiction on this xD