I've made a tool in Google Drive to allow you to calculate calculate the odds of removing a player, getting a player sent off, and the average team value change, when committing a foul.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_OwWXvN-jHnWK0FYAlbiQvw0o7fyMhMbKwHyr1ERxVY/edit?usp=sharing

Obviously it's usefulness depends on context. There are moments where fouling is a necessity regardless of the team value lost (some elf laying down inside your cage), and team value gains/losses from the foul can't always be judged in isolation (fouling clawpombers). Nonetheless I feel it can serve as a useful tool for coaches.