Coping with this game

New day, new games, again 3rd time in the same game I roll double 1´s on a quick pass with agility 4 guys.

My opponent, bretonia, with AV 8 keeps passing every armor, I have passed one.

Game keeps on going, thats me with 3 injuries on my side and a couple of KO, left with 6 guys on game. Remember AV8 team, vs my opponent also AV 8 team who has suffered 1 injury 1 KO and has used no rerolls.

And again my opponent manages 2 go for it, a 4+ pass, a 3+ catch, a 4+ dodge and a 3+ dodge and another 2 go for it without using a reroll,

my stats if I could post them here are 50% for everything that required 2+, which should be 83%, thats passes, catches and dodges, all on 2+

@kaintxu said in Coping with this game:

Mike all that sounds goo, but does not take the context of how the plays were made. Double 1´s happen to often, which pretty much breaks everything for agility teams which has been my point from the beginning.

The chi-square test looks at the distribution of the rolls to see how far off they are from the expected perfect distribution. This means that, for example, if we rolled the d6 60 times during a game our expectation is that we'll see roughly 10 of each dice value. Randomness rarely gives us exactly that, so the chi-square goodness of fit test looks at how far off from that expectation the observed values are.

If you were getting an abnormal amount of double 1s, we'd expect that to show up in that test as there being an abnormal distribution of values... unless its giving a commensurate amount of additional 2's, 3's, 4's, 5's, and 6's. At that point the "dice cheating" is getting pretty complex, since it's having to keep track of the number of times it alters the value it gives you, and compensate with other values in order to avoid being noticed in statistical analysis.

Even if it did that (tinfoil hats on) we look at the pattern of the values using lag-1 autocorrelation (ac1 in the results) which is basic signal analysis meant to differentiate between random noise and numbers that have a non-random pattern to them.

Likewise, we look at the mean value of the dice rolls (which have an "expected" value of 3.5) and see how far off that expected value the mean value is.. again, if it was throwing you more 1's than anything else, that would push your mean d6 value downward, and a t-test of the observed values against the expected value would almost certainly show abnormality... unless, again, its keeping track and compensating with enough > 1 values to push the mean back into expected ranges while simultaneously tracking which numbers it uses in order to avoid running afoul of the chi-square test on the number of each value we see.

@kaintxu said in Coping with this game:

I also commented that the roll number are usually the same, but my doubt comes in how has people tested how often double ones, or quadruple ones come up?

The ac1 test I mentioned would notice if there were an abnormal amount of sequential values.

So just that you guys see it´s not about winning m myself, I was just playing vs dwarves and I got 3 out on turn 1, he had turn over 2 turns, one with 4 skulls in a row.

@dode74 said in Coping with this game:

Post up a replay file or something.

I've asked for this a dozen of times in similar threads, still no luck to this day..

Kaintxu uses the same name in the game.

It all evens out. If Kaintxu is getting all the bad luck that is more good luck for the rest of us.

@kaintxu said in Coping with this game:

No, you think its about the game, but analysis shows it's not.

Those are my rolls for the last game, my opponents were also quite bad, but he did not have a single turn over over double 1´s

How do I get a replay file?

@kaintxu said in Coping with this game:

Those are my rolls for the last game, my opponents were also quite bad, but he did not have a single turn over over double 1´s

The last two games recorded on goblinSpy at the moment are concession matches for you. So here's the analyses on the last non-concession match that is available for you via goblinSpy:

## (Aurrezky Dantzarys)

d6 rolls: n = 52, χ2 = 4.54, p = 0.4748
d6 ac1: r = 0.1546, p = 0.1350
d6 mean: 3.2692
d6 mean t = -0.9508, p = 0.3462
Block rolls: n = 16, χ2 = 1.25, p = 0.8698

## (Anotha One)

d6 rolls: n = 76, χ2 = 4.37, p = 0.4977
d6 ac1: r = 0.1169, p = 0.1558
d6 mean: 3.6053
d6 mean t = 0.5045, p = 0.6154
Block rolls: n = 44, χ2 = 0.66, p = 0.9563

## Total Match

d6 rolls: n = 128, χ2 = 4.19, p = 0.5227
d6 ac1: r = 0.0972, p = 0.1367
d6 mean: 3.4688
d6 mean t = -0.1973, p = 0.8439
Block rolls: n = 60, χ2 = 0.35, p = 0.9864

Nothing out of the ordinary there. Even if we ignored family-wise error problems (which we shouldn't) we still don't see anything reaching the level of statistical significance. Not a single p value is below 0.05, much less the 0.004 we'd use to maintain the guaranteed of only a 5% false positive rate across the whole battery of tests.

Hi VoodooMike, as I say those numbers only show the means and such, not when the rolls are rolled.

Still if you ant to see some number se the screenshot from above. And I understand that it is just 1 game, and it can happen, and I agree that not all my games are like that, don´t get me wrong, but when for passes, catches and dodges, on ago 4+ guys on 2+ they are all 50%, that says something.

Anyway, I do understand there is no point in arguing any more and I will have to deal with it. Which is why I originally posted here. I know there is a few people that think like me because I have been told (some of them people who are on the side of tending to get good rolls), but I guess we are all biased even looking at the above.

Back on topic, anyone has a successful agility team, or while not successful any tips on how to cope with this?

@voodoomike

BTW about the concessions, I did quite a few at the beginning but now stopped doing it, just have one from the last couple of days, because I was very frustrated, but even the other games with 5 injuries I kept going

So last oponent orc, crap defense on his side, leave ball carrier completely open with 3 guys of his right in front of him, I get behind him, know him down, ball bounces and he gets in in tackle zones, next 3 KO in turn, next turn 2 injuries and kills my bear.

Conceded right there

I would delete this shit team if it was not for the luck I have actually had developing guys and one ago 5 catcher, and ago 4 lineman.

Anyway I will probably not be able to do much as I conceded plenty times, did´t know about the 5 concession rules, until I had conceded like like the first 7 as I Was fed up, then stopped conceding

So first image is my kislev, again half the team out. My opponent is also doing kislev, lets see his team.

This is my opponents

Few games in a row like this

and this is how the game ended.

Explain this to me. I have played plenty of blood bowl, never seen this happen game after game to the same person, there is something wrong with the roll 100%

Next game vs bretonia, AV 8 like me. her you have.

Please guys tell me this is normal 3 games in a row, because if you think it is you have no fucking idea of BB and you have never played before this shit game came out

these waves of so called "bad luck" hit and they tend to stick around for a long time. Right now I am able to play great games again but my so called "bad luck" of about 3 months is now on my brother. for a little over a month now he can't do anything. Just like you said, sure he gets his fair share of d5 and d6 and they all come on his armor rolls so he gets hurt but if he tries to go for it he rolls d1. Only takes 1 d1 roll to end a turn. Also when you are having your "bad luck" streaks notice if you have a "big guy" 90% of 2 block dice rolls comes up Skull and both defender down. Once you get so frustrated with this result you will start re rolling this result and on the 50% chance of getting threw loner you get the exact same result. I love this game been playing it since day one, they have my total support. But it hard to find friends that will be as patient with the "bad luck" streaks that are exactly what you are describing in this post. My brother knows I love this game, he loved it too but he hates playing now and is only showing up for games because he knows I am upset that the league I put together is falling apart due to these extreme cases of "bad luck"

@Execute

Thanks for you nice and understanding post, instead of going like everyone else that this is my fault.

That is something I have been noticing, does each player roll for his own armour right? I noticed yesterday on the stat page how I had like 6 injuries, but I had only caused one. That means that it all gets even worse, because it's me rolling all my 5's and 6's on my own armour?

If this is the case the game is way more broken than I thought. I roll my double 1 on my dodge and then to compensate I roll my 5's and '6 on my next armour and injury killing myself? you have to be kidding me. This game you should roll your opponents armour. That's why the internal balance is totally broken. Cool, I'm rolling like shit on my skill rolls? then at least I should be killing my opponent with my 6's, but no.

I dare any of you guys before execute, come and tell me how that is balanced and proper game design

@kaintxu said in Coping with this game:

@Execute

Thanks for you nice and understanding post, instead of going like everyone else that this is my fault.

Well, for example. Kicking on turn 8: You set up 5 guys on the line and everyone else in blitzing range. Did you think the half had ended?

So, you gave up blocks on SIX players instead of just three.

You tend to follow up when you don't need to, leaving players in base contact ready to be hit next turn.
You do a lot of unnecessary dodging & leaping. Not only can players be injured falling, but ending your turn early again leaves other players in base contact to be hit. Unnecessary early passing, the same thing.
You also took an injury getting pushed out of bounds. Beware the sidelines.
You also didn't maximise your blocks on the line when receiving.

I dare any of you guys before execute, come and tell me how that is balanced and proper game design

The game isn't balanced. The teams are not balanced. The luck is not balanced.

The luck is designed to be random. They have not 'fixed' the luck to make it even out over the course of a game. That wouldn't be blood bowl.
They have not fixed the luck to make it even out over a few games. It is random. that is how it rolls.

You say that the luck is much worse than tabletop or Fumbbl. Coaches like Jimmy & Sage have thousands of games on Fumbbl. I haven't head them complaining that BB2 dice are worse. If they have done, then I'll take more notice.

Kislev don't look like the greatest team IMO. You play an open, fun style with lots of dodging, passing and leaping. With that style, you are always going to be at the mercy of the dice.
That style definitely looks like more fun than the standard 2-1 grind. But it is going to struggle against experienced grinders.

TLDR: you roll more 1s because you roll more dice.

• 116
Posts
• 12254
Views