RankPoints = Win% * (CrossPoint + (1 - CrossPoint) * (1-((1-MIN(Limit, GamesPlayed)/Limit)^x)) + NonConcedeBonus
where x = log (a/(1-CrossPoint)) / log(1-(Target/Limit))
Crosspoint = 0.4
Limit = 42
NonConcedeBonus = (played - concede) * 0.02 (concede = 0 atm).
a = 0.05
Target = 28
Crosspoint is currently at 0.4. I'll run some tests with variations from 0.2 to 0.4.
Which kind of strengthens my point on the matter. I.e. they perform best against equal TV. But if they are facing higher TV teams, then they need cheap inducements to be able to be competitive, because just a few skills like block, tackle, can wreck havoc to them.
I don't think there are many disagreeing with that. Certainly I am not.
you get a feel for what is random and what is definitely not
No, you don't. Humans are appalling at recognising randomness. That's why we have tests for it.
Your conspiracy theories are fun and all, but I suggest you spend that 10c on another tinfoil hat instead.
First, I'm not a member of the Cyanide team, and neither is Mike. Your personal satisfaction isn't relevant to me: that the game works is. Customer feedback is one thing, but data is another.
Second, your experiences are all well and good, but they are a subset of the whole data. You have played a tiny portion of the games played by Brets. Nobody has accused you of lying, merely asked what your coachname is so your claims have verification and context: lots of people think they are good coaches but aren't when it comes down to it. Similarly you might actually be the best Bret coach ever, but we don't know.
The only thing we can ascertain rankings on is performance, so that's what we use. The reduction in rank value due to games played is to account for the fact that we are more sure of the performance of teams which have played more. There's not really any significantly different way to account for wildly differing numbers of games played (even Elo will have the same issue).
Previous seasons' data can be found on GoblinSpy. No, dwarves are fine for these leagues. Thing is, teams aren't really competing against other races in this ladder since the top (2?) of each race goes through. So even if the top 20 were dwarves it wouldn't matter since only 2 of them would qualify.
Season ends when the patch drops. Bear in mind a season would normally be 6 weeks.
Edit: this is a good article: http://www.moserware.com/2010/03/computing-your-skill.html
The top teams are what matters in this competition, ultimately. Not so sure about "screws the rankings up" for the rest, but certainly you're more likely to get a better ranking if you play more. I don't think that's a bad thing.
Runners up are second best of each race. And 2nd Flings are highly unlikely to get in.
Does the sequence repeat after 623? Do any BB matches roll that many dice?
No, it just means any one sequence of length 623 is equally likely. Some longer sequences are more likely than others (no idea which ones or how much more likely). The sequence itself doesn't repeat until after 2^19937 iterations, which is a lot.
I can't think of any matches which would use 623 dice or more. If every player rolled 2 dice every turn for a match you'd get 704 rolls, but I doubt that has ever happened. New challenge? Maximise the number of dice rolls?